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Re: [ba-unrev-talk] Connecting the Dots...



	While I think that Eric has drawn an interesting 
	collection of links.    (01)

	However, I think that it misses some critical
	points:    (02)

	1) Iraq is not the problem: The implication is that
	   regime change will alter the pattern of 
	   terrorism. The missing piece is that the 
	   result of regime change, especially forced
	   regime change, is unpredictable.     (03)

	   My belief is there is more opportunity of jumping
	   out of the pan and into the fire if the
	   change is made poorly.    (04)

	2) The US is not the policeman of the world:
	   The issue presented assumes that regime change
	   by the US is appropriate.    (05)

	   Just because you can do something does not
	   mean that you should do something.    (06)

	   If California gets unhappy with Arizona for 
	   abuse of the river that california wants.
	   And it becomes a life and death issue for the 
	   people living in LA, is it going to be reasonable
	   for the state militia of california to arizona?    (07)

	   We believe in a world ruled by law, not by 
	   power and not by personality.     (08)

	   Just as we would not want states using armed force,
	   we don't want a world run by arms instead of law.    (09)


	3) The law of unintended consequences.    (010)

	   When you make changes in a complex system,
	   you get unpredictable side effects.     (011)

	   There is no guarentee that the side effects are
	   better than the current situation    (012)


	4) Haste makes waste    (013)

	   Iraq has been doing silly things for decades. 
	   While eric made a case for why there is a 
	   relation between Iraq and al-queda,
	   he does not make a case for timing.    (014)

	   Why do we need to do something about now?
	   There is no compleling reason to invade Iraq now.
	   There are other tools in place that
	   can effect change without going to war.    (015)

	   the cost of war is going to be much higher than
	   people imagine.    (016)

	5) Our social system is based on trust.    (017)

	   Much of what we do in the US is based on trust.
	   We assume that things will work.
	   We go to our banks and the banks don't have
	   armed guards with special scanners and door locks.    (018)

	   (They do have this in Italy by the way.)    (019)

	   So we have many opportunities for terrorism.
	   Any truck into a chlorine tank will take out a city.    (020)

	   How many chlorine takes can you identify on your
	   way to work?     (021)

	   How many people died in Bpol because of a gas leak?    (022)

	   So, there is no reason to expect that if Iraq is changed
	   completly that they have in any way reduced the risk
	   of terrorism.     (023)

	   If fact, by forcing the issue in this way,
	   they force more people into polarizing on the issue,
	   and it in fact breeds more terror later.    (024)

	   A short term win for a long term loss.    (025)


	   So, I believe that eric has left out many of the issues
	   related to the case. And as such does not make the 
	   compelling case for why we should do something
	   in Iraq.    (026)

	   We lose more people to stupidity every year than we lost in
	   9/11.     (027)

	   It would be far more effective to engage the world
	   on a different level than the current administration is
	   operating on.    (028)











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