I've been nudging these space things a bit lately (eg. article link on
Asteroid Mining) because we to an extent have lost a bit of the second
part of the UnRevII focus. The issue is what are the global problems of
humanity and how should we go about resolving them? (Of course, using
Augmenting systems to help us.)
My perspective on this is that there are issues and challenges facing
us, but they are not what may be expected. Many are related primarily to
the implications of Moore's law applied over the next four decades (i.e.
computers a million to a trillion times faster than today's desktop for
the same price). Moore's law is itself a product of a bootstrapping sort
of process. Others are related to similar exponential growth curves in
biotechnology, nanotechnology, communications technology, manufacturing
technology, power technology, materials technology, robotics, and
collaborative technology (IT and/or social).
Compared to those challenges, running out of oil in a century or two is
a non-problem. In that sense, asking where our economy will get its
power in a hundred years is a bit like demanding a five year answer in
detail how they will earn a living after college. Obviously we don't
want to wave all our problems into a future "deus ex machina", but the
question is -- is exponential (bootstrap) growth happening, and if so,
what does it mean the real problems will be (and for who and where and
when)?
Or putting it another way, our technology may be in a runaway bootstrap
process whether we like it or not. This runaway bootstrap process may be
occurring whether or not our social knowledge or wisdom is bootstrapping
at the same rate. Doug has pointed out that every day may count -- he
says it is one thing that keeps him moving. So too we should think about
how every day may count as we try to bootstrap our collective wisdom
using still evolving Knowledge Management techniques to try to keep up
with the bootstrapping (or exploding) technosphere.
Sadly, part of the problem manifests itself in lack of priority
resources to try to solve the KM problem (especially in an open source
way), as organizations position themselves for private gain in business
as usual. This is similar to Doug's parable of the ant nest that
overhangs the river and continues to expand thinking everything is fine
until the branch snaps and it falls in the rushing water to be swept
away. Why invest in bettering the lot of humanity when there is one more
easy sale to make of a proprietary software, or one more stealth bomber
to build at a profit and some campaign donations, or (more ethically
challenging) one more hour that could be spent with your family?
[Related reading: "Protector" sci-fi novel by Larry Niven]
http://www.alumni.caltech.edu/~mcelroy/review/books/lnprot.html
My personal approach to this other UnrevII theme is to focus on a subset
of the problem I think a few people could solve. For me that is the
design of self-reliant communities in space, because that both is an
interesting long-term problem and it may have positive spinoffs for
bootstrapping developing communities on Earth (one of which is
developing tools like OHS / DKR). I find it a question that focuses the
mind, leading one to think about technologies and economics in a way
different from business as usual.
This is similar in some ways to the Buckminster Fuller mode of thinking
http://www.bfi.org/ of supporting human life in the universe with
minimal technology (the "Design Science" revolution). For that to
succeed, one needs to focus on the basics of survival, manufacturing,
and life support with an organization and cross-disciplinary focus
(including building real things) that is historically lacking in most
(not all) granted academic endeavors (despite what is promised, given
the realities of acadmic departments and related power strucutres). And,
fullfilling the design science hope will take something like Doug's
Augment / OHS. So, in general terms, my interest is perhaps more towards
Doug for OHS / DKR infrastucture (includign social aspects), and towards
Bucky for OHS / DKR content (mainly product design and manufacturing
process aspects).
This is my particular direction. I can see quite well the need for OHS /
DKR techniques to study and improve social systems as well (like Dee
Hock's Chaordic http://www.chaordic.org/ approach). Of course,
obviously there are current issues as well (millions of starving people
due to not distributing existing food supplies for political reasons,
http://www.thehungersite.com/
the continuance of ignorance and extreme poverty for similar reasons,
the proliferation of weapons of mass-destruction, the continued
destruction of biodiversity, misguided social policies, etc.). These all
deserve to be addressed by an OHS/ DKR. Once can hope that more for
everyone will mean more for the disadvantaged and less strife in
general. Whether that would be true is itself another question to
examine using a OHS / DKR.
-Paul Fernhout
Kurtz-Fernhout Software
=========================================================
Developers of custom software and educational simulations
Creators of the Garden with Insight(TM) garden simulator
http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com
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