Re: [unrev-II] Darwin Solves the Frame Problem

From: Eric Armstrong (eric.armstrong@eng.sun.com)
Date: Thu Feb 08 2001 - 15:36:16 PST

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    Great word, Henry, "computent". I like that.
    And I agree with everything you've said.

    The thought-experiment is something of a "bomb",
    I agree. But as I mentioned in a verbal summary
    I gave someone else (and have not put into the
    paper):
      "When your only chance for survival is to
       win the lottery, it makes sense to buy a ticket."

    The fact that I rate our chances "fair to middlin'"
    on a good day, and "poor to dismal" on a bad one
    doesn't prevent me from focusing as much effort as
    I can on the subject -- because I see it as the
    only possible avenue.

    I like your focus on "taking small steps towards
    a truly interactive, truly intelligent democracy"
    (as opposed to the rhetorical oligarchy we now
    enjoy). I think that focus is a much better, and
    much more positive, way to state the goal.

    Hopefully, between the carrot (your vision) and the
    stick (my fear), we can compel some action.

    You see, one of the observations that produces
    pessimism is the fact that what we need is truly
    interactive sharing of the kind Doug has long
    espoused -- but the only system we have for producing
    new technologies is inherently at odds with that.

    Now, the system we need is not *completely* at odds
    with what we're doing, and therein lies the hope.
    But at the same time, I note that my interest in
    making a living prevents me from spending as much
    time as I would like, in an ideal scenario, to
    devote to the problem.

    Since I am clearly not the only person who is
    interested in contributing to a solution, and since
    most everyone I know of who *is* interested is
    also compelled to make a living, I note with chagrin
    that the very work we need is work we are least-well
    -organized to achieve.

    But that observation, is very much in the vein of
    "collaboration system" efforts that are to date
    uncoordinated and not collaborating. It kind of goes
    with the territory, given where we came from.

    At bottom, it is not the trends that bother me, but
    rather the timeliness factor. Given where we came
    from, I suspect we are going through the natural,
    slow, takes-most-of-a-century paradigm shift to get
    to where we need to be.

    But, as in the frame problem, the issue is time. I
    suspect that we have 20 years to find a solution,
    if we're lucky -- and 30 if we're *extremely* lucky.

    After that, I fear that shortages of power and
    resources will begin to hobble the technological
    foundations that are prerequiste to the kinds of
    solution we visualize.

    (Of course, some other solution may arise. Like, we
    figure out how to live in harmony with nature and
    give up the technology. But I would expect radical
    upheaval and major loss of life before we arrive
    there, unfortunately.)

    Henry van Eyken wrote:
    >
    > Yes, Eric, you are right on. The book goes into the neural mechanism
    > (which
    > is a bootstrapper's delight). As for your second post, I just bought
    > the
    > book off the shelf. The hardcover edition was first published in 1999,
    > the
    > paperback in 2000.
    >
    > As said, I am still reading the book, but I kind of sense that it may
    > influence your thinking or presentation of your thesis, which
    > precipitated
    > the post. An additional objective for recommending the book is that it
    > brings together some good insights into fundamental differences
    > between
    > electronic and neural computing. If we are to augment the human mind,
    > we
    > probably will learn to do so better the better we understand that
    > mind.
    > (Yes, I was looking at your post with glasses colored by my interest.)
    >
    > Let me go on a bit more, besides addressing the particulars of your
    > post. I
    > believe that our site ought be due attention to both the human and the
    > tool
    > side of things. And this ought include other tools for augmentation
    > besides
    > augment/OHS. I am discussing this with Doug. Among our obstacles, as I
    > see
    > them, are that the permanence of the site is not assured, and that we
    > are
    > awfully thin on personnel. Also, me going on to 74, we must look at
    > succession, which, it seems to me, ought be a managed team of diverse
    > competences (subjects, communications, dkr building).
    >
    > Doug's objective is to boost mankind's collective capability for
    > coping with
    > complex, urgent problems. Some of these may come with a "frame
    > problem"
    > attached. I am personally inclined to move back a bit from the
    > objective of
    > humans surviving toward the objective of a better informed (computent)
    > citizenship, which would improve the democratic functioning of our
    > society.
    > The ideal democracy would be a pinnacle reachable by many. many small
    > steps,
    > all doable. Just hope that the bomb of your thought experiments does
    > not put
    > a stop to this.
    >
    > Henry
    >
    > Eric Armstrong wrote:
    >
    > > Thanks, Henry. I'll take a look at the book you
    > > mentioned.
    > >
    > > But note that "using clues" to "beat the time
    > > dimension" -- i.e. to *anticipate* and act
    > > *in advance*, so that one's reaction time
    > > overlaps the initiation of the opposing action,
    > > rather following it, is precisely a result of
    > > learning and self-organizing.
    > >
    > > In other words, athletes *program* themselves
    > > to "react in advance", which totally supports
    > > the central thesis of the paper.
    > >
    > > As an example: In my volleyball career, I found
    > > I was much more comfortable at the AA level than
    > > at the B level. Physically, I was never fast
    > > enough to compensate for all the weird places
    > > the ball might go at the C level -- from my own
    > > team, as well as others. But at the AA level, I
    > > could "read" the players. I knew what they
    > > intended to do as they did it, and they had the
    > > skills to carry out their intentions -- so I was
    > > always "comfortable" in a way that I never could
    > > be at at the B level, much less the C level.
    > >
    > > Henry van Eyken wrote:
    > > >
    > > > Eric:
    > > >
    > > > Just a few quick notes.
    > > >
    > > > In the process of paying due regard to the larger purpose of
    > Doug's
    > > > technical work, i.e. the solving of large-scale societal
    > conundrums, I
    > > > feel
    > > > a need to hastely travel along various byways. Currently that is
    > > > reading a
    > > > 1999 book by John McCrone called "Going Iside" and which provides
    > an
    > > > insight
    > > > in neuroscience. I haven't quite gotten halfway yet, but I
    > recognize
    > > > a
    > > > pattern in your argument that corresponds to some of the stuff in
    > the
    > > > book.
    > > >
    > > > The neural system, it appears, has a way of ducking the crucial
    > > > element of
    > > > time. I am just in a part where the author discusses athletic
    > > > achievements.
    > > > By their training athletes have unconsciously come to rely on
    > clues
    > > > that
    > > > beat the "critical dimension of time" mentioned in your
    > Conclusion.
    > > > (Ref.
    > > > the chapter, "A moment of anticipation.".) I haven't sunk deep
    > enough
    > > > into
    > > > the subject yet to provide a decent summary, but it looks to me
    > that
    > > > Minsky's "Society of Mind" (1985) and Dennett's "Consciousness
    > > > Explained"
    > > > (1991) are rather dated sources in the fast-moving world
    > neuroscience
    > > > with
    > > > its ongoing upheaval of ideas.
    > > >
    > > > I kind of suspect that Dennis Hamilton is informed about some of
    > this
    > > > stuff.
    > > > And referring to his post "Collective Intelligence," I was going
    > to
    > > > contact
    > > > you to find out from what post of yours he quoted. At any rate, I
    > can
    > > > see
    > > > now where you are coming from.
    > > >
    > > > My guess is that you may find quite a bit of inspiration in
    > McCrone's
    > > > book
    > > > for a fruitful review of your article. Hope I am not leading you
    > down
    > > > the
    > > > garden path.
    > > >
    > > > Henry
    > > >
    > > > Eric Armstrong wrote:
    > > >
    > > > > I had planned to work on the KRNL library this
    > > > > weekend, to clean it up some. I didn't get to that.
    > > > > But as a consolation prize, I have a solution to
    > > > > the A/I "frame" problem.
    > > > >
    > > > > Write up at:
    > > > > http://www.treelight.com/essays/darwinframe.html
    > > > >
    > > > > I'm thinking this might be appropriate for Scientific
    > > > > American, or Discovery, or some such layman's guide
    > > > > to science. Anyone have any editorial contacts?
    > > > >
    > > > >
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