First
-----
I'm glad to see a discussion centered around values,
because I suspect that a statement of values has
important implications for selecting a direction.
At yesterday's well-attended reception for Doug's
National Medal of Technology, this thread came up
over and over again. In discussing it with Rod
Welch and one other fellow, we identified several
salient points:
a) Given a wide range of options from which
to choose, a statement of values may well
narrow the selection.
b) It would be good to know for sure that the
direction we are choosing is within the
set of "desirable" directions, according
to those values.
c) On the other hand, even a tool as simple
as an ax can be used for good or for bad.
So its not totally clear that a statement
of values is much help when it comes to
making tools.
d) On the other other hand, there may well be
tools which are hard to use for bad ends,
and others which are hard to use for good
ends.
Second
------
I was recently reminded of the dictum of unintended
consequences. Basically, a drought-likely environment
will only support so many people, and every time a
drought occurs, some percentage dies off. This keeps
the herd small that attempts to live there.
When well-meaning attempts to avoid that consequence
prevent the natural thinning, the herd grows large.
At the next drought, the number of potential deaths
is many times greater than it was, raising the sense
of urgency and the importance of "doing the right
thing" to prevent the consequences, because now,
thousands are affected, rather than hundreds.
As a result, the herd grows dramatically. The land
now holds many times more people than it can
comfortably support. Come the next drought, millions
will die. Now the situation is truly desparate, and
something simply has to be done.
But during the NEXT drought...
You see where this is heading. We're caught between
our natural impulse to help individuals, and the
counter-intutitive affects of our intervention.
We reach a point where only by keeping up a
constant stream of aid can the population continue
to be supported. And sooner or later, we reach a
point where we can't continue that level of
assistance. What happens then?
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Dec 21 2000 - 18:40:21 PST